Elemental Royalty Delivers Strong Quarterly Performance

Elemental reported Q3 2026 results on November 10, 2026 (after market close). This is an earnings release, so the full teardown below is warranted.

• Revenue of US$20.8M, GEOs of 4,861, adjusted EBITDA of US$16.6M, adjusted operating cash flow of US$13.2M, net income of US$3.75M, cash of US$23.0M.
• Headline growth rates are 203% (revenue) and 168% (adjusted EBITDA) versus Q3 2025, but the comparator is pre-EMX merger (Q3 2025 revenue US$6.9M / US$8.2M including Caserones) and is therefore not a like-for-like operating comparison.
• Nine-month 2026: revenue US$68.9M, adjusted EBITDA US$51.8M, GEOs 15,092 ("record" YTD).
• Guidance: existing-portfolio GEOs narrowed to 18,000–20,500 (from 17,000–21,000); existing-portfolio revenue narrowed to US$80.5–90.5M (from US$76.5–94.5M); plus ~1,500 GEOs of Orion economics for Aug 1–Dec 31, 2026, for a total 19,500–22,000 GEOs on an "economic basis."
• New price deck: US$4,000/oz gold and US$6.00/lb copper for the remaining three months, versus US$4,500/oz gold in the prior 2026 guidance.
• Strategic items are all previously announced: Vizsla close (Sept 2026), Orion portfolio (US$290M, four of five assets closed Oct 26), Carlin East generation divestment, facility upsized to US$250M + US$50M accordion, Chapi/Quilla US$25M package, US$0.03 quarterly dividend and NCIB.
• Asset-level disclosure: Caserones copper output fell to 15,015 t in Q3 (from 33,964 t in Q2) after ~30 days of storm-related suspension; Lundin cut 2026 guidance to 105,000–115,000 t. Karlawinda produced 31,218 oz with the expanded plant in continuous operation from September. Bonikro produced 28,643 oz with ~256,000 oz left on the 560,000 oz royalty cap. Timok revenue US$2.6M. Leeville gold sales 37,259 oz.
• The release does not mention Korali-Sud at all, which contributed US$10.2M of revenue in the first nine months of 2025 and US$0 in 2026.

The quarter is weaker than the headline suggests, and the release's framing is doing real work.

• Revenue fell 12.5% sequentially (US$23.8M in Q2 to US$20.8M in Q3) and GEOs fell 7.4% (5,248 to 4,861). Adjusted EBITDA fell 4.5% and operating cash flow fell 15.1%. The 203%/168% year-over-year growth rates exist only because the EMX merger closed in November 2025.
• The largest driver is Caserones, the company's largest single royalty. Copper output halved quarter-on-quarter (33,964 t to 15,015 t) and the operator cut full-year guidance to 105,000–115,000 t, with the release itself flagging that snowmelt is affecting Q4 haulage. Against a prior 2025 copper guidance range of 127–133 kt, this is a ~15%–17% volume haircut on the largest revenue line.
• The guidance table is framed against the Q2 2026 baseline ("2026 Original Guidance: 17,000–21,000 GEOs"), which conveniently skips over the September 21 guidance of 19,500–22,000 GEOs and US$89.8–101.1M revenue. The release therefore reads as a narrowing rather than a revision.
• The G&A promise from the August call was missed outright, and the cost relief (Carlin East) has not closed.
• The market was already positioned for deterioration: the shares fell from US$31.58 (Aug 25) to US$20.26 (Oct 30), a 36% drawdown, before rallying 17.4% into the print ($20.26 to $23.79 on Nov 9). Because the release came after the close on Nov 10, the US$22.85 close is positioning, not the verdict. The quarter confirms rather than surprises: no new negative shock (no impairment, no dividend cut, no management change, no covenant issue), but a clear sequential deterioration, a missed cost commitment and a rebased revenue guide. That is a negative-but-expected outcome.

Elemental Royalty Corporation (NASDAQ: ELE; TSX: ELE) is a mid-tier, gold-focused streaming and royalty company formed by the November 2025 merger of Elemental Altus and EMX Royalty. It describes approximately 20 producing assets and more than 260 royalties.

• Cornerstone producing royalties: Caserones (Chile, copper/molybdenum, effective 1.304% NSR), Bonikro (Côte d'Ivoire, gold, up to 4.5% NSR capped at 560,000 oz), Karlawinda (Australia, gold, 2% NSR uncapped), Timok (Serbia, copper/gold, 0.3625% NSR), Leeville (Nevada, gold, 1.0% GSR), Laverton (Australia, gold, 2%–4% GRR), Ballarat and Gediktepe.
• Development royalties: Panuco (Mexico, silver-gold, 2.0%–3.5% NSR), Diablillos (Argentina, 1% NSR), Dugbe (Liberia, 2.0%–2.5% NSR), Cactus/Parks-Salyer (Arizona, 0.50%–0.54% NSR), Viscaria (Sweden, 0.5%–1.0% NSR), Mactung (Yukon, 4% GRR reducible to 2%), Western Queen (2.5% NSR), Chapi (Peru, 3.0% NSR), plus the Orion assets: Ruby Hill/Granite Creek (Nevada silver streams at 20% of spot, stepping to 10% after 2.5 Moz), Kouroussa (Guinea, 5% gold stream at 20% of spot), Snowy River (New Zealand, 1% gold stream capped at 675,000 oz), La Negra (Mexico, 2.5% GRR), Homestake District (South Dakota, two 1% NSRs).
• Pro forma commodity mix by NAV (per the provided presentation): gold 48%, silver 18%, copper 27%, other 7%. Geographic mix: US & Canada 21%, rest of world 79%.
• Strategy: acquire producing and near-term development streams and royalties, run a lean corporate overhead, and return a modest dividend. The generation business (early-stage project optioning) is being divested to Carlin East, with Elemental retaining a ~19.9% stake, 50% of transferred production royalties, and 50% of certain buyback proceeds.
• Management: Frederick Bell (CEO, appointed September 2026), Stefan Wenger (CFO), Juan Sartori (Executive Chairman). David Cole departed to lead Carlin East.