Ivanhoe Mines Issues 2026 Third-Quarter Financial Results, Overview of Operations and Exploration Activities

Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN) reported its third-quarter 2026 results on 3 November 2026, marking the company’s strongest operational quarter of the year alongside a reset in guidance that represents the lowest outlook for 2026. On a company basis, profit after tax rose to $45 million from $31 million in Q3 2025 and $46 million in Q2 2026. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $241 million, compared to $86 million in Q3 2025 and $179 million in Q2 2026. Cash and equivalents stood at $643 million as of 30 September 2026, up from $635 million at 30 June 2026. Segmental EBITDA was $190 million for Kamoa-Kakula and $108 million for Kipushi.

At Kamoa-Kakula, which Ivanhoe owns 39.6% of on a 100% project basis, the mine produced 76,401 tonnes of copper in saleable products and sold 67,025 tonnes payable at a realized price of $6.12/lb. The operation generated record quarterly revenue of $1,034 million, operating profit of $288 million, and EBITDA of $478 million, representing a 46% margin. Cash cost (C1) was $3.00/lb, with cost of sales at $4.59/lb. Year-to-date C1 stood at $2.80/lb.

The company revised its 2026 production guidance to approximately 290,000 tonnes, sitting at the floor of the previously stated 290,000–310,000 tonne range. Guidance for 2027 was cut to 300,000–350,000 tonnes, and C1 was raised to $2.50–$3.00/lb from the prior estimate of $2.10–$2.50/lb. The steady-state capacity of the existing Phase 1, 2, and 3 concentrators was reduced to 400,000–450,000 tonnes, down from previous framing that suggested 17 Mtpa supporting over 500,000 tonnes per year from 2028. Achieving the ~500,000 tonnes per year ambition now requires the Phase 4 expansion, for which detailed engineering is scheduled to begin in Q1 2027, followed by an 18–24 month construction period from approval.

The revisions follow delays in Kakula East stoping, pushed from Q4 2027 to late Q1 2028, and a reduction in the estimated maximum mining rate at Kakula. Grades have declined, with combined feed at 2.22% compared to 2.47% a year ago, and Phase 3 feed at 2.07% versus 2.44%. To address this, Ivanhoe plans to initiate open-pit mining at Kamoa, with pre-stripping starting in Q1 2027 and first ore expected in Q3 2027. The plan targets approximately 3.5 million tonnes at 2.5% Cu by the end of 2028. The open-pit cut-off has been lowered from 1.5–2.0% Cu to as low as 0.4% Cu, and the extraction ratio has increased from 65% to 95%. Capital expenditure guidance for 2026 was lowered to $1,100–1,200 million from $1,100–1,400 million, while 2027 capex was raised to $950–1,150 million from $750–950 million, excluding $100–200 million for open-pit pre-stripping.

At Kipushi, which Ivanhoe owns 62%, the mine produced a record 77,147 tonnes of zinc in concentrate at a 41.6% feed grade and 96.02% recovery. The company sold 69,384 tonnes at $1.73/lb, generating $255 million in revenue and $108 million in EBITDA (43% margin). C1 was $0.91/lb. 2026 guidance was tightened to 270,000–290,000 tonnes from the previous range of 240,000–290,000 tonnes.

At Platreef, which Ivanhoe owns 64%, 99,391 tonnes were milled at 2.30 g/t, yielding 4,552 oz of 3PE+Au. The Phase 2 concentrator remains on schedule for Q4 2027. 2026 capex guidance was raised to $415–445 million from $350–380 million. The release noted that Phase 1 continues to ramp up to commercial production, omitting the previously stated Q4 2026 commercial production date.

In other developments, a Mineral Resource Estimate for Western Forelands dated 8 September 2026 reported 42 million tonnes at 2.66% Cu Indicated and 612 million tonnes at 1.80% Cu Inferred. Drilling has been upsized to 120,000 metres from Q4 2026. The company reported one fatality at Kakula at the start of the quarter and the death of Kipushi General Manager Ivano Manini. Additionally, MSCI upgraded Ivanhoe’s ESG rating to AA.

Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN) reported a strong quarter, but forward-looking numbers have deteriorated, marking a significant shift in the company’s outlook. Quantifying the 2027 reset using midpoints and a $6.00/lb copper price reveals substantial impacts on production and costs.

• Volume loss at 100% basis: 75,000 t of copper not produced. At a margin of price minus C1 ($6.00 - $2.30 = $3.70/lb, or ~$8,157/t), that is roughly $612 million of EBITDA at 100%, of which ~$242 million is attributable to Ivanhoe at 39.6%.
• Unit cost increase: +$0.45/lb on ~716 million payable pounds (325,000 t) = ~$322 million at 100%, or ~$128 million attributable.
• Combined: roughly $370 million of attributable 2027 EBITDA removed versus what the July call still implied. For context, FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA was $578 million and Q3 2026 was $241 million.

This adjustment removes more than half of last year's group EBITDA from next year's expectation. The financial pressure is compounded by a 2027 capex increase of ~$200–400 million at Kamoa plus a Platreef overrun, occurring in a year when operating cash flow is already thin.

The market had already braced for some decline, with shares down 52.8% from the January high and making a new 52-week low on the day of the release. The stock fell 16.1% between the Q2 print (29 July, $10.59) and this print ($8.88). While some of this decline was discounted, the July call still guided 2027 at 380,000–420,000 t at $2.10–2.50/lb; the reset is materially worse than what had been telegraphed. The market's revealed expectation into the print — a relentless downtrend, a failed September rally, a new low — was deterioration. It got more than it bargained for.

Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN) is a Canadian-domiciled, TSX-listed producer operating three mines in Southern Africa and maintaining a large exploration portfolio.

The company’s Kamoa-Kakula operation in the Democratic Republic of Congo is held through the Kamoa Holding joint venture, which comprises 39.6% Ivanhoe, 39.6% Zijin, 20% the DRC government, and 0.8% Crystal River. The asset covers a 400 km² licence near Kolwezi on the western edge of the Central African Copperbelt. Phase 1 (2021), Phase 2 (2022), and Phase 3 (June 2024) concentrators total 17 Mtpa. A 500,000 tpa direct-to-blister smelter cast its first anode in December 2025. Phase 4 would add 5.0–6.5 Mtpa, taking capacity to 22.0–23.5 Mtpa. Open-pit mining at Kamoa is being introduced from 2027.

The Kipushi mine in the DRC is a 62% Ivanhoe and 38% Gécamines venture. It is an ultra-high-grade zinc-copper-lead-germanium mine with an 800 ktpa concentrator, ranking third globally by contained zinc in 2026.

Platreef in South Africa is a 64% Ivanhoe, 26% B-BBEE partners, and 10% Japanese consortium including JOGMEC and ITOCHU operation. The asset features a flat-lying, ~26 m thick PGM-nickel-copper-gold reef in Limpopo. Phase 1 operates at 0.8 Mtpa; Phase 2 is scheduled at 3.3 Mtpa by Q4 2027 to produce over 450,000 oz 3PE+Au; Phase 3 is targeted to exceed 1 moz.

In the Western Forelands of the DRC’s Makoko District, Ivanhoe holds a wholly-owned exploration asset immediately west of Kamoa-Kakula, now the largest declared copper discovery of the past decade by contained metal.

Early-stage exploration includes Angola (22,000 km², drilling paused to late 2027 due to contractor performance), Zambia (7,757 km², IOCG system confirmed), and Kazakhstan (20% JV with Pallas Resources, 17,528 m drilled year-to-date).

Management includes Robert Friedland (Founder and Executive Co-Chairman), Marna Cloete (President and CEO), and David van Heerden (CFO). Simon Bottoms (EVP Technical Services) and Steve Amos (EVP Projects) are the named Qualified Persons.