Ivanhoe Mines Announces Kamoa-Kakula Copper Production Guidance for 2026 and 2027 as Recovery Plan Advances

On December 3, 2025, Ivanhoe Mines announced copper production guidance for the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex for 2026 and 2027. - 2026 Production Guidance: 380,000 to 420,000 tonnes of copper. - 2027 Production Guidance: 500,000 to 540,000 tonnes of copper. - Medium-Term Target: The company is targeting a production rate of 550,000 tonnes per annum.

The release also provided an update on the recovery and rehabilitation of the Kakula Mine following the May 2025 seismic event. - Dewatering Progress: Stage two dewatering is 70% complete on the western side and 60% complete on the eastern side. - Rehabilitation: 13.4 kilometres of underground workings have been rehabilitated. - Mining Rate Ramp-up: Kakula's western mining rate is currently 350,000 tonnes per month and is targeted to reach 450,000 tonnes per month by the end of Q1 2026. Kamoa Mines are targeting an increase from 6.5 Mtpa to 8.5 Mtpa in 2026 and 10 Mtpa in 2027. - Future Plans: An updated life-of-mine integrated development plan for Kamoa-Kakula is on track for completion by the end of Q1 2026.

This announcement is materially positive as it provides long-awaited guidance for 2026 and 2027, removing a significant uncertainty that has clouded the stock since the May 2025 seismic event at the Kakula mine.

• Historical Context: Following the seismic event, Ivanhoe suspended operations at Kakula and withdrew all guidance on May 26, 2025. On June 11, it issued revised 2025 guidance but explicitly withdrew its previous 2026 target of approximately 600,000 tonnes. On September 18, the company formally deferred issuing 2026/2027 guidance pending further progress on dewatering. The lack of a clear medium-term production profile has been a major overhang.

• Impact of New Guidance:

  • The 2026 guidance of 380,000-420,000 tonnes represents a significant downward revision from the pre-incident target of ~600,000 tonnes. This confirms the recovery will be a multi-year process and resets near-term expectations lower.
  • However, the 2027 guidance of 500,000-540,000 tonnes demonstrates a clear and strong recovery trajectory, with a path back toward the medium-term target of 550,000 tpa mentioned in prior releases and the recent Q3 conference call.
  • The key positive is the removal of uncertainty. The market can now model future production and cash flows with greater confidence, which should be supportive of the stock's valuation. The company met its commitment, stated on December 1, to issue this guidance promptly.

• Operational Progress: The detailed operational metrics on dewatering, rehabilitation, and mining rates provide tangible evidence that the recovery plan is advancing. Hitting these ramp-up targets, especially at Kakula, will be crucial to meeting the new guidance.

In summary, while the 2026 numbers are lower than original hopes, the provided guidance establishes a credible and quantified recovery path. This clarity is a significant de-risking event for the company. The stock price has already recovered its losses from the incident, suggesting the market was anticipating a successful, albeit delayed, ramp-up. This news provides the concrete data to support that view.

Ivanhoe Mines is a major Canadian mining company developing and operating three principal assets in Southern Africa. 1. Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex (DRC): The flagship asset, a joint venture with Zijin Mining. It is one of the world's largest, highest-grade, and lowest-carbon-emitting major copper mines. The project is in a multi-phase expansion, though a May 2025 seismic event has delayed the ramp-up. A 500,000 tpa on-site smelter is commencing operations. 2. Platreef Project (South Africa): A giant, high-grade deposit of platinum-group metals, nickel, copper, and gold. Phase 1 production commenced in late 2025, with large-scale phased expansions planned. 3. Kipushi Mine (DRC): An ultra-high-grade, producing zinc-copper mine that is currently ramping up and undergoing debottlenecking to increase throughput. The company also holds extensive, highly prospective exploration ground in the DRC (Western Forelands), Angola, Zambia, and Kazakhstan.