Predictive Discovery & Robex Announce Merger of Equals

Executive Summary
- Predictive Discovery Limited (ASX: PDI) and Robex Resources Inc. (TSX‑V: RBX, ASX: RXR) have entered into a definitive arrangement agreement to combine in a merger of equals via a statutory plan of arrangement under Quebec law.
- The transaction will create a West African gold producer with >400 koz per annum expected production by 2029, combined mineral resources of ~9.5 Moz Au and ore reserves of ~4.5 Moz Au, and an implied fully‑diluted market cap of ≈A$2.35 bn (C$2.17 bn).
- Share exchange ratio is 8.667 PDI Shares for each Robex Share; post‑closing ownership will be roughly 51 % PDI shareholders and 49 % former Robex shareholders on a fully‑diluted in‑the‑money basis.
Key Details
- Transaction Structure
- Statutory plan of arrangement (Quebec Business Corporations Act).
- Exchange ratio: 8.667 PDI Shares per Robex Share.
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Approx. 2,115 million PDI Shares to be issued; up to an additional ~497 million Shares may be issued upon conversion of outstanding Robex convertible securities (including ~281 million Shares from 32.38 m warrants at C$2.55).
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Ownership & Valuation
- Post‑transaction fully‑diluted ownership: PDI shareholders ≈51 %; former Robex shareholders ≈49 %.
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Implied market cap (fully‑diluted, in‑the‑money): A$2.35 bn / C$2.17 bn.
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Strategic Rationale
- Combined production target >400 koz Au/yr by 2029.
- Combined Mineral Resources ≈9.5 Moz Au; Ore Reserves ≈4.5 Moz Au.
- Cash‑flow from Robex’s Kiniero Project and exercise of in‑the‑money warrants/options to de‑risk development of PDI’s Bankan Project.
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Creation of a tier‑1 mining hub in Guinea (Bankan & Kiniero within ~30 km).
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Key Assets & Production Forecasts
- PDI – Bankan Project (Guinea): Avg. 250 koz Au/yr over 12 yr; FID targeted Q2 2026.
- Robex – Kiniero Project (Guinea): First production expected Dec 2025; avg. 139 koz Au/yr over 9 yr.
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Robex – Nampala Mine (Mali): Forecast 46‑47 koz Au in 2025.
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Closing Timeline
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Expected to close December 2025 or early 2026, subject to court approval, TSX‑V clearance and shareholder approvals (≥66 % of Robex votes).
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Governance
- Combined board: Andrew Pardey (Non‑Executive Chairman), Matthew Wilcox (CEO & MD of combined entity), Alain William (Exec. Director – Gov’t Relations & Legal).
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Additional non‑executive directors: Simon Jackson, Steven Michael, Alberto Lavandeira, Howard Golden.
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Shareholder Approvals
- Robex shareholders must approve at a special meeting; voting support agreements in place covering ~25.5 % of Robex shares (Cohen Group, Eglinton Mining, and certain directors/executives).
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PDI board approved unanimously; Robex Special Committee recommended approval unanimously.
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Fairness Opinions
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Canaccord Genuity (Robex Board) and Cormark Securities (Robex Special Committee) issued fairness opinions confirming financial fairness of the consideration.
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Financing & Debt
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Existing Robex syndicated facility remains in place to fund Kiniero construction; lender consent obtained for merger.
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Advisors
- PDI: BMO Capital Markets, SCP Resource Finance LP (financial); Fasken Martineau DuMoulin LLP (Canadian legal); Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer (Australian legal); GenCap Mining Advisory (board financial).
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Robex: Canaccord Genuity (financial), Peloton Legal (Australian legal), Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt (Canadian legal), Simmons & Simmons (local matters), Crux Law (debt financing), Cormark Securities (Special Committee).
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Webcasts
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Two joint investor webcasts scheduled 6 Oct 2025 (11:00 am AEDT / 1:00 am BST / 8:00 pm EDT) and 6 Oct 2025 (11:00 pm AEDT / 1:00 pm BST / 8:00 am EDT).
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Regulatory & Legal
- Requires approval of the Superior Court of Québec, TSX‑V, and ≥66 % Robex shareholder vote.
- Termination fee of A$37 million payable by whichever party terminates under specified circumstances.
Notable Quotes
- Andrew Pardey (CEO, PDI): “By combining two of West Africa’s largest and most advanced gold development projects… we are creating a company that positions Guinea to become one of Africa’s top five gold producers.”
- Matthew Wilcox (CEO, Robex): “This combination marks a transformative step… I am excited to lead a team that brings together deep operational experience … and a shared commitment to responsible growth in West Africa.”