TC Energy delivers strong third quarter performance and updates three-year financial outlook

Executive Summary

• TC Energy reported Q3 2025 comparable EBITDA of C$2.7 bn (up ~13% YoY) and announced an extended three‑year outlook through 2028, targeting C$12.6–13.1 bn comparable EBITDA in 2028.
• The company disclosed a quarterly dividend of $0.85 per common share and highlighted the sanctioning of $0.7 bn of new low‑risk growth projects (total > $5 bn sanctioned in the past 12 months) with an average build‑multiple of ~5.9×.
• Operational performance showed modest increases in natural gas pipeline deliveries across Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, and record LNG facility deliveries (4.0 bcf/d on Aug 7 2025).

Key Details

• Financial Highlights (Q3 2025)
• Comparable earnings: C$0.8 bn ($0.77 per share) vs. C$0.9 bn ($0.86) YoY.
• Net income attributable to common shares: C$0.8 bn ($0.78 per share) vs. C$1.3 bn ($1.29) YoY.
• Comparable EBITDA: C$2.7 bn vs. C$2.4 bn YoY.

• Segmented earnings: C$1.9 bn vs. C$2.4 bn YoY.

• 2025 Outlook

• Expected comparable EBITDA: $10.8–$11.0 bn.

• Capital expenditures (gross): $6.1–$6.6 bn; net: $5.5–$6.0 bn.

• 2026 & Three‑Year Outlook

• 2026 comparable EBITDA: $11.6–$11.8 bn (6–8% YoY growth).

• 2028 comparable EBITDA: $12.6–$13.1 bn (5–7% annual growth 2025‑2028).

• Dividend

• Quarterly dividend declared: $0.85 per common share (annualized $3.40).

• Operational Highlights

• Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines deliveries: 23.0 bcf/d (+2%).
• NGTL system receipts: 14.0 bcf/d (+1%).
• U.S. pipelines flows: 26.3 bcf/d (flat YoY).
• LNG facility deliveries: 3.7 bcf/d (+15% YoY), record 4.0 bcf/d on Aug 7 2025.
• Mexico pipelines flows: 3.3 bcf/d (+2%).

• Bruce Power availability: 94%; cogeneration fleet availability: 87.7%.

• Project Highlights

• $8 bn of assets placed into service YTD, on‑time and ~15% under budget.
• VNBR (Valhalla) section placed in service Sep 2025; capital cost ≈ C$0.2 bn, adds ~0.4 bcf/d capacity.
• VR project (Columbia system) placed in service Nov 2025; US$0.5 bn cost.
• WR project (ANR system) placed in service Nov 2025; US$0.7 bn cost.

• New growth projects approved: $0.7 bn total, weighted‑average build multiple ≈5.9×. Includes TCO Connector (US$0.3 bn) and Midwest Connector (US$0.1 bn), together providing ~0.6 bcf/d capacity; in‑service dates 2030 & 2031.

• Regulatory Update

• FERC approved settlement filing on Section 4 Columbia Gas Rate Case (Oct 30 2025), resulting in a rate increase relative to pre‑filed rates.

• Management Commentary

• CEO François Poirier emphasized “robust North American energy fundamentals” and the company’s ability to deliver low‑risk, high‑return growth without additional risk exposure.
• CFO Sean O’Donnell highlighted strong cash generation: net cash from operations C$1.92 bn in Q3 2025 versus C$1.915 bn YoY.

Notable Quotes

“Driven by robust North American energy fundamentals, strong asset performance and exceptional project execution, we are extending our five to seven per cent annual comparable EBITDA growth outlook through 2028.” – François Poirier, President & CEO

“Our strategy is working, we're delivering consistent value without taking on additional risk… over the past 12 months, we have sanctioned over $5 billion in new growth projects across our North American natural gas and power portfolio.” – François Poirier

The release includes a teleconference/webcast scheduled for Nov 6 2025 at 6:30 a.m. MT (8:30 a.m. ET) to discuss the results.