IG Wealth Management 2026 Market Outlook: Policy Tailwinds, AI Investments and Wealth Effect Will Shape Growth

Executive Summary

• IG Wealth Management released its 2026 Market Outlook, highlighting expected monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, AI‑driven investment, and a continued wealth effect as primary drivers of growth in Canada and the United States.
• The outlook projects low recession risk for 2026, with central banks shifting from restrictive to accommodative policies, supporting corporate investment, housing, and consumer spending.
• AI is identified as a major catalyst for productivity gains and capital expenditure, while rising household wealth is expected to sustain consumer demand.

Key Details

• Monetary Policy: Anticipated continued rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve; shift toward easing to stimulate economic activity.
• Fiscal Stimulus: Governments in both countries projected to increase spending—Canada focusing on housing, productivity, and infrastructure; the U.S. maintaining lower personal and corporate tax rates.
• AI Investment: 2025 saw heightened AI investment across sectors; expected to translate into further productivity gains and support the constructive economic cycle into 2026.
• Wealth Effect: Equity market gains in 2025 have boosted household wealth, which historically drives consumer spending; this “wealth effect” is projected to repeat in 2026 for Canada and the U.S.
• Recession Outlook: Recession risk assessed as low for 2026 despite lingering uncertainty from 2023‑2024 macro conditions.
• Strategic Guidance: Investors are encouraged to maintain discipline, focus on fundamentals, and avoid market timing; emphasis placed on understanding rather than reacting to market noise.

Notable Quotes

“If 2025 was a year of uncertainty, 2026 will bring clarity—not through the absence of noise, but through the strength of fundamentals. Supported by monetary easing, fiscal expansion, AI‑driven investment and increased household wealth, investors have reason to be bullish if they embrace the current market cycle as it unfolds.” – Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist, IG Wealth Management

Materiality Assessment: Non-Material – Neutral (forward‑looking commentary without concrete financial or operational data).