EXIM Bank Increases Letters of Interest for the Graphite One Supply Chain to $2.07 Billion
US Strategic dependency on China drives $2 billion federal debt signal, but a massive equity gap threatens shareholder dilution.
The most recent news (December 18, 2025) announces that the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) has significantly increased its non-binding Letters of Interest (LoI) for Graphite One’s supply chain to a total of $2.07 billion USD. This is an upsize from previous indications of $895 million. Specifically, the LoI for the Graphite Creek mine in Alaska increased to $670 million, and the LoI for the Ohio manufacturing plant jumped to $1.4 billion with a 15-year repayment term. Additionally, news from December 16, 2025, confirmed the presence of high-value magnet and Heavy Rare Earth Elements (REEs) at the Graphite Creek deposit, with 85% of the REEs found in garnet material being the highly sought-after magnet or heavy varieties.
This news is materially positive because it demonstrates a Tier-1 level of US government backing for the project as a matter of national security. However, as a risk-averse analyst, the following "red flags" must be noted: - The $2.07 billion is non-binding. It is an indication of interest, not a committed loan. - The company states it is in discussions for the "remaining 30% of capital costs." Based on a total project capital cost of roughly $5 billion (from the April 2025 BFS), the equity or alternative financing gap remains nearly $1.5 billion to $3 billion. - The project is still in the "Resource/Feasibility" stage. First production for the Ohio plant is targeted for 2028 and the mine for 2030. This is a long-dated, high-risk timeline. - The REE discovery, while promising, is preliminary. Extraction methods have not yet been proven or costed into the BFS.
Graphite One is developing a vertically integrated US-based graphite supply chain. - Upstream: The Graphite Creek Project in Alaska, cited by the USGS as the largest graphite deposit in the US. - Downstream: An Advanced Graphite Materials Manufacturing Plant in Warren, Ohio, intended to produce anode active material (AAM) for the EV market. - Circular Economy: A planned recycling facility co-located in Ohio. - Project Economics (BFS April 2025): Post-tax NPV8% of $5.0 billion with a 27% IRR.