Suncor Energy announces 2026 corporate guidance

Executive Summary

• Suncor Energy released its 2026 corporate guidance, projecting upstream production of 840‑870 kbbl/d (up >100 kbbl/d vs. 2023) and refinery utilization of 99%‑102%, exceeding its 2024 Investor Day targets.
• The company announced an increased share‑repurchase program of C$275 million per month, targeting C$3.3 billion of buybacks in 2026.
• Total capital expenditures are forecast at C$5.7‑5.8 billion (midpoint), with 45% allocated to oil‑sands economic investments and a focus on high‑value projects such as Mildred Lake East, West White Rose, Fort Hills North Pit, and Petro‑Canada retail network optimization.

Key Details

• Production Guidance (2026)
• Total bitumen production: 915 k–955 k bbl/d
• Upgraded net SCO & diesel: 530 k–540 k bbl/d
• Non‑upgraded bitumen: 255 k–270 k bbl/d
• Total oil‑sands production: 785 k–810 k bbl/d
• Exploration & Production (E&P): 55 k–60 k bbl/d

• Total production: 840 k–870 k bbl/d

• By Asset

• Oil Sands operations – SCO & diesel: 350 k–365 k bbl/d
• Oil Sands operations – non‑upgraded bitumen: 120 k–130 k bbl/d
• Fort Hills: 175 k–185 k bbl/d
• Syncrude (58.74% working interest): 200 k–210 k bbl/d

• Inter‑asset transfers/consumption (negative): –60 k to –80 k bbl/d

• Throughput & Sales Guidance

• Refinery throughput: 460 k–475 k bbl/d
• Refinery utilization: 99%–102%

• Refined product sales: 600 k–620 k bbl/d

• Capital Guidance (C$ millions)

• Oil Sands economic investment: 3,850‑3,925 (≈45% of total)
• E&P economic investment: 425‑475 (100% of segment)
• Downstream economic investment: 1,300‑1,375 (≈30%)

• Corporate: 25 – 5%

• Cash Operating Cost Guidance (C$/bbl)

• Oil Sands operations: C$26.00‑29.00
• Fort Hills: C$33.00‑36.00

• Syncrude: C$34.00‑37.00

• Other Financial Metrics (2026 Outlook)

• Current income tax expense: C$1,700‑2,000 million
• Canadian effective tax rate: 24%‑25%; U.S. effective tax rate: 22%‑23%
• Average corporate interest rate: 5%‑6%

• Crown royalties (Oil Sands): 8%‑11%; Fort Hills: 3%‑5%; Syncrude: 9%‑12%

• Business Environment Assumptions

• Brent price: US$66/bbl; WTI: US$62/bbl; WCS: US$49/bbl
• Refining margin (NY Harbor 2‑1‑1 crack): US$24/bbl
• Natural gas (AECO‑C Spot): C$3.00/GJ
• Alberta Power Pool price: C$55/MWh

• USD/CAD exchange rate: 0.73

• Adjusted Funds From Operations Sensitivities

• +US$1/bbl WTI → ≈ C$215 million impact
• +US$1/bbl NYH 2‑1‑1 crack → ≈ C$180 million impact
• +0.01 US$/C$ exchange rate → ≈ (C$270) million impact
• +C$1/GJ AECO gas price → ≈ (C$250) million impact

• +C$20/MWh Alberta power price → ≈ C$140 million impact

• Share Repurchase Program

• Monthly buybacks increased by 10% to C$275 million.

• Projected annual repurchases: C$3.3 billion in 2026 (100% of excess cash).

• Planned Capital Projects & Turnarounds (2026)

• Major turnaround at Firebag; scheduled maintenance at Base Plant, Syncrude, Fort Hills.
• Downstream turnarounds at Edmonton, Montreal, Sarnia, and Commerce City refineries.

• Ongoing high‑value investments: in‑situ well pads, Mildred Lake East, West White Rose, Fort Hills North Pit, Petro‑Canada retail network optimization.

• Forward‑Looking Statements

• Company will provide an update on 2025 operational results and performance versus its 3‑year Investor Day targets in early January 2026.

Notable Quotes

“The company’s 2026 guidance reinforces our focus on best‑in‑class execution and operational excellence… 100% of excess funds will continue to be returned to shareholders through share buybacks in 2026.” – Rich Kruger, President & CEO

“We remain focused on delivering superior shareholder value in 2026 and beyond.” – Rich Kruger, President & CEO