RBI Reaffirms Growth Algorithm, including 8%+ Organic Adjusted Operating Income Growth and 5%+ Net Restaurant Growth by 2028, with Plans to Return $1.6 Billion of Capital to Shareholders in 2026

Executive Summary

• RBI reaffirmed its 2028 growth algorithm, targeting ≥8% organic Adjusted Operating Income (AOI) growth and ≥5% net restaurant growth.
• Announced a $1.6 billion capital return plan for 2026, including an initial $500 million share‑repurchase program and continuation of its dividend.
• Laid out a simplification roadmap: sunset the Restaurant Holdings segment by end‑2027, achieve investment‑grade leverage (≈4.0× net debt/EBITDA) by 2026 and low‑mid‑3× by 2028, and reduce annual Capex to ~ $300 million after 2028.

Key Details

• Growth Targets
• ≥8% organic AOI growth each year 2024‑2028 (already delivered >8% in 2024 & 2025).

• ≥5% net restaurant growth by 2028 → ~1,800 net new restaurants annually.

• Net Restaurant Growth Breakdown (2028)

• U.S./Canada: 300‑400 net new units/yr (Firehouse Subs ≈150‑200, Tim Hortons & Popeyes split remaining).
• China: 300‑400 net new units/yr (Burger King China >200 via CPE partnership; Popeyes China & Tim Hortons China 100‑200 combined).

• International excl. China: ~1,100 net new units/yr (top markets India, UK, Mexico, France, Japan ≈700; other 175 market‑brand combos ≈400).

• Capital Allocation

• Share repurchases: $500 million in 2026, scaling up as excess free cash flow grows.
• Dividend: continuation with long‑term payout target ~60% of earnings.

• Capex & Cash Inducements: $400 million (2026‑27) → ~$300 million (2028+).

• Leverage & Investment Grade

• Target net leverage ≈4.0× in 2026; low‑mid‑3× by 2028 to achieve investment‑grade rating.

• No incremental leverage for buybacks until investment grade is reached.

• Simplification Roadmap

• Sunset Restaurant Holdings segment by end‑2027 (refranchise Burger King US company portfolio to ~300‑500 owned restaurants; place Popeyes China & Firehouse Brazil with long‑term local partners).

• Burger King “Reclaim the Flame” Update

• Franchisee ad fund contribution of 4.5% of sales extended through at least 2027 (97% vote support).

• Franchisee profitability improved to ≈$205k (2023‑24) and maintained in 2025 despite beef price pressures.

• Technology Launch

• Introduction of “BK Assistant,” an AI‑powered operations tool for managers (inventory, compliance, guidelines).

• Investor Day Access

• Replay available on RBI investor relations site for one year: http://rbi.com/investors

Notable Quotes

• “We are building a simpler, stronger, and more focused RBI… delivering consistent 5%+ Net Restaurant Growth, predictable earnings growth, and strong double‑digit total shareholder returns.” – Josh Kobza, CEO
• “We’re committed to becoming a simpler, 99% franchised business… we resume share repurchases in 2026 and aim for investment‑grade leverage within two years.” – Sami Siddiqui, CFO

Materiality Assessment: Material – Positive (the release provides forward‑looking guidance on earnings growth, capital returns, leverage targets, and strategic restructuring that are likely to influence investor decisions).