Northland Power Reports Fourth Quarter 2025 Results and 2026 Financial Outlook

Executive Summary

• Northland Power reported FY 2025 Adjusted EBITDA of $1.25 bn (in line with guidance) and Free Cash Flow of $1.46 per share (exceeding its 2025 target).
• Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA rose 25% YoY to $390 m; net income more than doubled to $290 m, driven by record offshore wind production in Germany and contributions from the Oneida BESS facility.
• Management issued a 2026 outlook forecasting Adjusted EBITDA of $1.45‑$1.65 bn (up from 2025) and Free Cash Flow of $1.05‑$1.25 per share, while outlining construction milestones for Hai Long (commercial ops 2027) and Baltic Power (commercial ops H2 2026).

Key Details

• Financial Highlights – FY 2025
• Revenue from energy sales: $2,435 m (up from $2,346 m YoY).
• Net loss of $108 m versus net income of $371 m in 2024, primarily due to a $527 m non‑cash pre‑tax impairment on the Nordsee One offshore wind facility.
• Adjusted EBITDA: $1,253 m (down $9 m YoY).
• Free Cash Flow per share: $1.46 (down from $1.53 YoY).

• Available corporate liquidity: $931 m (including $39 m cash and $892 m revolving credit capacity).

• Q4 2025 Highlights

• Revenue: $723 m (up from $572 m YoY).
• Net income: $290 m (up from $150 m YoY).
• Adjusted EBITDA: $390 m (up from $312 m YoY).
• Free Cash Flow per share: $0.46 (up from $0.31 YoY).

• Operating cash flow: $227 m (down from $360 m YoY).

• Operational Performance

• Offshore wind production in Germany set a record, with Q4 electricity output of 271 GWh (+21% YoY) and commercial availability of 97%.
• Onshore wind & solar in Spain produced 248 GWh (flat YoY); commercial availability 97%; revenue down 17% to $45 m.
• Natural gas facilities generated 1,088 GWh (+42% YoY); revenue $102 m; commercial availability 90%.

• Oneida BESS contributed $91 m of energy‑sales revenue and $52 m of Adjusted EBITDA in Q4.

• Construction Updates

• Hai Long Offshore Wind (1.0 GW) – 37/73 turbines installed, 20 generating; commissioning slower than expected, potential pre‑completion revenue impact of $150‑$200 m. Commercial ops targeted for 2027; costs remain on budget.

• Baltic Power Offshore Wind (1.1 GW) – Substations and monopile foundations installed; 30 turbines and 2/4 export cables in place; grid interconnection completed. On‑track for commercial ops H2 2026; costs on budget.

• Strategic & Transactional Items

• Acquired two late‑stage pre‑construction BESS projects in Poland (300 MW / 1.2 GWh) on 20 Nov 2025.
• Signed a five‑year PPA covering ~⅓ of production from the 332 MW Nordsee One offshore wind farm (18 Nov 2025).
• Board approved dividend increase to $0.72 per share (annualized) on 12 Nov 2025.

• Completed performance test and amended PPA for a 23 MW upgrade at the Thorold natural‑gas facility (25 Nov 2025).

• 2026 Outlook & Guidance

• Adjusted EBITDA forecast: $1.45‑$1.65 bn (vs. $1.25 bn FY 2025).
  • +$150‑$200 m from Hai Long (partial year),
  • +$70‑$120 m from Baltic Power (H2 2026),
  • +~$15 m from Oneida & Jurassic BESS.
  • Offset by –$20 m Nordsee One step‑down.

• Free Cash Flow forecast: $1.05‑$1.25 per share (vs. $1.46 FY 2025).

  • Adjustments include loss of 2025 tax benefit, higher FX hedging costs, increased debt service, and lower capitalized interest on hybrid debt.
  • Partial offset from Baltic Power contribution (~$0.20 per share).

• Conference Call

• Earnings call scheduled for 26 Feb 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET; registration link provided.

Notable Quotes

“In 2025, we set a clear direction for Northland through our five‑year plan focused on maximizing long‑term shareholder value… We also see value‑accretive opportunities across our core markets in Canada and Europe.” – Christine Healy, President & CEO

“Our offshore wind assets in Germany set a new production record, and construction progress continues to be on track for Hai Long and Baltic Power.” – Christine Healy