Allied Gold Announces Preliminary Third Quarter 2025 Operating Results
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Allied Gold announced preliminary operating results for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025. Key highlights include: * Gold Production: 87,020 ounces. * Gold Sales: 92,000 ounces. * All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC): Approximately $2,100 per ounce, which the company states is an improvement from $2,050 in Q2 2025. * Realized Gold Price: Approximately $3,450 per ounce, a significant increase from $3,098 in Q2. * AISC Margin: Approximately $1,350 per ounce, an 80% increase from $755 in Q2. * Cash Balance: Expected to be approximately $260 million as of September 30, 2025. * Guidance: The company is on track to meet its annual production guidance of "above 375,000 ounces," with Q4 expected to be the highest production quarter of the year. * Project Updates: Progress at the Sadiola Phase 1 expansion and the Kurmuk project is tracking well, with Sadiola's new circuit expected to be ready for ore in late Q4 2025 and Kurmuk's first gold still targeted for mid-2026. A modest increase in capital costs is noted for Kurmuk due to a decision to increase processing capacity.
This news is Routine - Negative. While the headline AISC margin of $1,350/oz and the increased cash balance appear strong, they are almost entirely driven by a record-high realized gold price ($3,450/oz), a factor outside the company's control. The underlying operational performance reveals several points of concern when compared to previous guidance and reports.
- AISC Miss: The Q2 2025 report (Aug 6, 2025) forecasted an AISC of $1,850/oz for the second half of 2025. The preliminary Q3 AISC of $2,100/oz is a substantial miss against this forecast. The company attributes $190/oz of this to the higher gold price via royalties, but even after adjusting for this, the underlying cost structure is tracking well above guidance.
- Discrepant Reporting: This release claims the Q2 2025 AISC was $2,050/oz to show a sequential improvement. However, the official Q2 2025 financial report stated a total AISC of $2,343/oz. This discrepancy suggests management is selecting favorable, possibly adjusted, numbers to present a better narrative than the official filings support. An actual comparison shows a cost improvement from $2,343/oz to $2,100/oz, which is positive, but still far from the guided $1,850/oz.
- Production Slight Miss: The Q2 report guided for Q3 production to be "comparable to Q2." Q2 production was 91,017 ounces; Q3 came in lower at 87,020 ounces. While not a major miss, it's a miss nonetheless.
- Back-End Weighted Guidance Risk: YTD production is 262,077 ounces. To meet the low end of guidance (375,000 oz), the company must produce at least 112,923 ounces in Q4. This aligns with their previous Q4 guidance of 118,000-122,000 oz but places immense pressure on a flawless commissioning of the Sadiola Phase 1 expansion, where the company admits to mining contractor delays. Any slip-up in Q4 will result in a full-year guidance miss.
- Capex Creep: The "modest increase in capital costs" at Kurmuk, while framed as a strategic improvement, is an early sign of potential capex overruns on their flagship growth project.
In summary, the strong gold price is masking operational underperformance on cost control. The company is not meeting its own cost forecasts, and its most critical quarter is still ahead, relying on a project commissioning that already has noted contractor issues.
Allied Gold is an Africa-focused gold producer with three operating mines: the Sadiola Mine Complex in Mali and the Bonikro and Agbaou mines in Côte d'Ivoire. The company's primary growth driver is the Kurmuk Project, a large-scale development project in Ethiopia.
The flagship operational asset is the Sadiola Mine, which is undergoing a multi-phase expansion to transition from processing oxides to handling larger quantities of fresh rock, aiming to significantly increase production to over 300,000 ounces per year long-term.
The flagship development project is the Kurmuk Project, which is fully permitted and under construction. It is expected to produce an average of 240,000 ounces per year at an AISC below $950/oz, with first gold targeted for mid-2026. Kurmuk is positioned to be the company's cornerstone asset and transform Allied into a mid-tier producer.