ARIS MINING DELIVERS STRONG 2025 GOLD PRODUCTION ABOVE GUIDANCE MID-POINT AND OUTLINES ACCELERATING GROWTH INTO 2026
Production Beat Validates Growth Strategy, Though Surging Cost Guidance and Q4 Cash Burn Raise Efficiency Concerns
On January 21, 2026, Aris Mining released preliminary 2025 production results and provided 2026 guidance. - 2025 Production: Delivered 256,503 ounces of gold, beating the guidance midpoint (guidance was 230k-275k oz). This represents significant growth, driven by Segovia producing 227,762 oz. - 2026 Guidance: Forecasts consolidated production of 300,000 to 350,000 ounces. - Segovia: 265k-300k oz. - Marmato: 35k-50k oz. - Cost Guidance: Segovia AISC (Owner Mining) is guided at $1,700 - $1,800/oz for 2026. - Cash Position: Ended 2025 with $390 million in cash (preliminary, unaudited). - Marmato Update: CIP plant commissioning expected Q4 2026; underground decline 45% complete.
While the headline production numbers are positive and confirm the "buy and build" thesis is working operationally, a critical look at the financials reveals concerning trends: - Production Growth (Positive): The company successfully ramped up the Segovia mill expansion, delivering 26% growth in H2 2025. Hitting the upper half of guidance builds credibility for the ambitious 2026 target of 300k-350k oz. - Cash Burn (Negative): Aris reported a cash balance of $418 million in Q3 2025 (Oct 29 release). The year-end balance is $390 million. Despite record gold prices likely persisting through Q4 2025, the company burned ~$28 million in cash during the quarter. This contradicts the "strong cash flow generation" narrative usually associated with Segovia. - Cost Escalation (Negative): The 2026 AISC guidance for Segovia ($1,700-$1,800/oz) is a material increase from previous performance. For context, in Q3 2025, Owner Mining AISC was $1,452/oz, and Q4 2024 was $1,386/oz. This implies severe inflationary pressure or grade degradation, compressing margins despite the bull market in gold. - Timeline Slippage (Neutral/Negative): Previous communications regarding Marmato stated "first gold in the second half of 2026." The new language specifies "CIP plant commissioning expected Q4 2026," pushing commercial production to the very back end of the window.
Aris Mining is a gold producer focused on the Americas, primarily Colombia and Guyana. - Segovia Operations (Colombia): The flagship cash-cow. High-grade underground mine. Recently completed a mill expansion to 3,000 tpd. It utilizes a partner model with artisanal miners (Contract Mining Partners - CMPs) to process high-grade material alongside owner-mined ore. - Marmato Complex (Colombia): The growth engine. Currently producing from the Upper Mine, with a major expansion (Lower Mine/Bulk Mining Zone) under construction to transition to a large-scale bulk mining operation. - Development Pipeline: - Soto Norte (Colombia): 100% owned (as of Dec 2025). Large scale, high-grade underground project. Currently in licensing/PFS stage. - Toroparu (Guyana): Multi-million ounce open pit resource. PEA released Oct 2025.