Canadian Natural Resources Limited Announces 2025 Third Quarter Results

Executive Summary

• Canadian Natural reported record Q3 2025 production of ~1.62 MBOE/d (up 19% YoY) and adjusted net earnings of $1.8 bn ($0.86/share).
• The company closed the AOSP swap with Shell, acquiring 100% ownership of the Albian oil‑sands mines (+31,000 bbl/d bitumen) and retaining an 80% non‑operated interest in the Scotford upgrader/Quest facilities.
• Updated 2025 production guidance to 1.560–1.580 MBOE/d; operating capital forecast unchanged at ~$5.9 bn.

Key Details

• Production Highlights
• Total corporate production: 1,620,261 BOE/d (record).
• Liquids: 1,175,604 bbl/d (+15% YoY).
• Natural gas: 2,668 MMcf/d (+11% YoY).
• Oil‑sands mining & upgrading: 581,136 bbl/d SCO; upgrader utilization 104%; operating cost $21.29/bbl SCO.
• Financial Results
• Adjusted net earnings: $1.8 bn ($0.86/share).
• Adjusted funds flow: $3.9 bn ($1.88/share).
• Net earnings (GAAP): $0.6 bn (incl. $0.7 bn non‑cash recoverability charge).
• Liquidity as of Sep 30 2025: ~$4.3 bn.
• Shareholder Returns
• Total Q3 return to shareholders: $1.5 bn (dividends $1.2 bn, share repurchases $0.3 bn).
• YTD return (through Nov 5): $6.2 bn ($4.9 bn dividends, $1.3 bn buy‑backs).
• Quarterly cash dividend declared: $0.5875 per common share (payable Jan 6 2026).
• AOSP Swap with Shell (closed Nov 1 2025; effective Mar 1 2025)
• Canadian Natural now owns/operates 100% of Albian oil‑sands mines and reserves.
• Retains non‑operated 80% interest in Scotford Upgrader & Quest CCS facilities.
• Adds ~31,000 bbl/d zero‑decline bitumen production; no cash consideration aside from routine closing adjustments.
• Guidance Updates
• 2025 production guidance: 1,560–1,580 MBOE/d (up from prior range).
• Operating capital forecast unchanged at ~$5.9 bn (after $100 m reduction announced May 2025).
• Capital & Debt
• Repaid US$600 m of July‑2025 debt.
• Long‑term investment‑grade credit rating upgraded to BBB+ by Fitch.
• Net long‑term debt as of Sep 30 2025: $17.2 bn; cash & equivalents $113 m.
• Operational Updates
• Thermal in‑situ bitumen production: 274,752 bbl/d (steady YoY).
• New CSS pad at Primrose started Q3 25; SAGD pads at Jackfish (July 2025) and Kirby (Oct 2025) on‑line.
• NRUTT tailings treatment project targeting +6,300 bbl/d SCO, mechanical completion Q3 27.
• International production down 59% YoY due to Baobab FPSO refurbishment (≈7,800 bbl/d impact).
• Marketing & Agreements
• Long‑term natural gas supply agreement with Cheniere: 140,000 MMBtu/d for 15 years, deliveries starting 2030.
• Conference Call – Q3 2025 earnings call scheduled Nov 6 2025, 9:00 a.m. MDT / 11:00 a.m. EDT.

Notable Quotes

“Operations were strong in Q3/25 as we achieved record quarterly production volumes… The AOSP swap adds significant cash flow and unlocks additional value through continuous improvement initiatives.” – Scott Stauth, President
“Our business model is robust and sustainable, underpinned by a strong balance sheet that provides flexibility through significant liquidity…” – Victor Darel, CFO