Pembina Announces 2026 Guidance, Agreement for Cedar Capacity, and Business Update

Executive Summary

• Pembina issued 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of C$4.125‑4.425 billion, a ~4% increase versus 2025, and reaffirmed its three‑year growth outlook.
• Signed a 12‑year, 0.5 mtpa capacity agreement with Ovintiv for Cedar LNG, bringing total remarketed capacity to 1.5 mtpa and revising Cedar LNG’s adjusted EBITDA contribution to US$220‑280 million.
• Approved a C$200 million expansion of the Peace Pipeline (Fox Creek‑to‑Namao) adding ~70,000 bpd propane‑plus capacity; overall conventional pipeline contracts added >200,000 bpd in 2025.

Key Details

• 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: C$4.125 bn – C$4.425 bn (midpoint reflects +4% fee‑based growth, moderated marketing contribution).
• Capital Investment Program 2026: Total $1.6 bn; Pipelines Division $640 m, Facilities Division $255 m, Corporate $45 m, plus $660 m contributions to equity‑accounted investees (Cedar LNG $380 m, PGI $280 m).
• Debt Metrics: Year‑end proportionately consolidated debt‑to‑adjusted EBITDA projected at 3.7‑4.0× (excluding Cedar LNG construction debt: 3.4‑3.7×).
• Cedar LNG Agreement: 12‑year, synthetic liquefaction service with Ovintiv for 0.5 mtpa; total remarketed capacity now 1.5 mtpa. Revised adjusted EBITDA contribution to Pembina: US$220‑280 m (base 3.0 mtpa plus up‑to 0.3 mtpa incremental).
• Peace Pipeline Expansion: $200 m Fox Creek‑to‑Namao project adds ~70,000 bpd propane‑plus capacity; in‑service Q1 2027. Total Peace & Northern system capacity to reach ≈1.2 million bpd after Phase III.
• Other Conventional Expansions: Birch‑to‑Taylor and Taylor‑to‑Gordondale projects (~$1 bn total) slated for preliminary construction in 2026, pending regulatory permits.
• Greenlight Electricity Centre: Land sale closed; final investment decision expected H1 2026; project up to 1,800 MW capacity.
• Operating Highlights: Record throughput on Peace Pipeline in 2025; over 200,000 bpd of new/renewed conventional pipeline contracts signed in 2025.
• Hedging: Approximately 30% of first‑half 2026 frac‑spread exposure hedged at C$29.30/bbl; target 30% hedge for full year by end Q1.
• Tax Expense Guidance 2026: Expected C$370 m – C$430 m, benefiting from tax pools on newly placed assets.
• Executive Changes: Retirements of SVP Corporate Development (Stu Taylor), SVP External Affairs & Chief Legal & Sustainability Officer (Janet Loduca), and SVP Corporate Services (Eva Bishop) effective 31‑Dec‑2025; Sarah Schwann appointed Chief Legal, People & Corporate Affairs.

Notable Quotes

• Scott Burrows, President & CEO: “Our 2026 guidance positions us to meet the three‑year growth targets set at our 2024 Investor Day and underscores the strength of our commercial successes and disciplined capital investment program.”
• Stu Taylor, SVP Corporate Development (Pembina): “Ovintiv is a significant customer… we are pleased to further support their growing business by providing access through Cedar LNG to diversified, higher‑value global markets.”

All figures are approximate and presented in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted.