Kolibri Global Energy lowers 2025 guidance

Executive Summary

• Kolibri Global Energy revised its 2025 production, revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance lower than previously forecast due to weaker oil prices and a drill‑pipe failure that delayed four Q4 wells.
• Capital expenditures for 2025 are now expected at $55 M–$58 M (up from prior estimates) and net debt at $46 M–$48 M, reflecting the redrill cost, weather impacts and higher input costs.
• The company plans to generate cash flow sufficient to repay $8 M–$10 M of debt in Q1 2026, with the delayed wells now slated for first‑production in December 2025, targeting a record production exit rate into 2026.

Key Details

• Guidance Revision: 2025 average production, revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance lowered; specific figures not disclosed but noted as “significant growth from 2024” despite the downgrade.
• Oil Price Assumption Change: Original guidance assumed $78/bbl; actual average price fell below $70/bbl, prompting the revision.
• Drill‑Pipe Failure: Barnes 6‑31‑3H well suffered a drill‑pipe failure causing the assembly to become stuck; redrilling is required, delaying fracture stimulations for all four wells in that area.
• Capital Expenditures (2025): Forecast $55 M–$58 M, higher than prior estimate due to redrill costs, weather‑related delays and cost inflation.
• Net Debt (2025): Projected at $46 M–$48 M, up from earlier guidance because of delayed cash flow from the four wells.
• Debt Paydown Plan: Anticipated cash flow will enable repayment of $8 M–$10 M of debt in Q1 2026.
• Operations – Successful Drilling: Barnes 6‑31‑2H well drilled under budget and safely completed; completion work to begin after redrill of Barnes 6‑31‑3H.
• Lovina Wells Performance: Four Lovina wells continue producing at ~80% of peak oil rates with slower decline than other field wells.
• Forguson 17‑20‑3H Well: Production up 21% since last update; only 3.8% of frack fluid recovered, but well averaging ~195 BOE/d (106 barrels oil). Peak production typically reached after 7–10% fluid recovery.
• Future Production Outlook: Delayed wells expected to start producing in December 2025, contributing most to Q1 2026 production and supporting a record exit rate for 2025.

Notable Quotes

“It is unfortunate and disappointing when a single component failure impacts the company's drilling program… we are not happy with the delay it has caused… but I am glad that it won't affect the ultimate productivity of the well.” – Wolf Regener, President & CEO

“On the Lovina wells, we are happy to see that they are declining at lower rates than other wells in our field… The continued improvement in the production rates of the Forguson well is also encouraging.” – Wolf Regener, President & CEO